Pennsylvania Doesn't Matter

The old line about Pennsylvania is that is comprised of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia with Alabama in the middle (and that is poor and working class white Alabama).

Obama will win by a significant margin in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Given the demographics and the population array in the rest of the state, Clinton will win Pennsylvania by approximately 5 to7 points. That is my midday prognostication.

It doesn't matter. She will pick up 10 or so delegates. She will pick up as much as 200,000 popular votes. She will claim victory. But, it doesn't matter.

Obama will win North Carolina by as much as 15% and will more than make-up the 10 delegates Clinton will gain in Pennsylvania. Indiana will be tight and could go either way. Thereafter, Obama will pick up Oregon and Montana and more than a majority of the remaining delegates.

I also expect Obama to pick up some noteworthy superdelegates in the next couple of weeks.

So, as it has for many weeks, the math favors Obama. There is no plausible way the Clinton can win. She continues to pray for a Hail Mary success. Her only hope is that Obama goes in the ditch. That is unlikely.

This process has been good for vetting Obama, but it has had the effect of undermining the lofty position the Clinton's have enjoyed.

As a friend mentioned yesterday, the real race for President is between Obama and Clinton. That person believes that McCain will implode before the election. More on that later.