Barack Obama took a serious hit in West Virginia. He didn't pay any attention to the state and let Hillary Clinton run away with it. It doesn't change the outcome but it does raise doubt about his electibility in the Ohio Valley states and in Appalachia.
In 1960, John Kennedy worked West Virginia hard and it was a key turning point for his campaign for the Democratic nomination. The circumstances and importance of the West Virginia primary are different today, but, with effort Obama could have narrowed the loss and come closer, I am convinced, to an Indiana style outcome.
Now, to overcome the doubt, he has shifted his emphasis to Kentucky. He is going to put resources and money into the state and not let it get too far out of whack as he did in West Virginia.
John Edwards endorsement this evening is a part of the strategy to build Obama's working class and poor folks cred. It is great that Edwards has come on board now. He said earlier that he was going to await the outcome of the primaries. I guess he feels the outcome is now certain.
Thoughtful analysis aside, I do believe there is a perfect ticket that will give the Republicans fits. It also will secure, permanently, the votes of poor white folk who growed up in a holler. I am proposing that Obama select the senior Senator from West Virginia, Robert Byrd, as his running mate. Think about, an Obama/Byrd ticket. It resonates success. It can't lose in Appalachia. It is a great unifying ticket. It smells of pork. And, the good news is, within a year or so Obama could select a replacement. On the other hand, Byrd as would act an insurance policy against lunatics bent upon taking out Obama. No one wants a President who soils himself.
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Sunday, May 11, 2008
Clinton Rage
I have been thinking recently about what it is that drives Hillary. What is the primary motivator that drives her behavior. Friends have said it is power. They say it is her desire for power.
I don't think so. I think the desire for power is a manifestation of the primary motivator.
I feel that Hillary's primary motivator is rage.
In my experience, most of human behavior can be ascribed to the baser emotions. Fear is a primary motivator. In Hillary's case, when I watch and listen to her, I hear the underlying rage.
She has spent most of her adult life playing second fiddle to Bill Clinton. That, alone, without his numerous indiscretions, would cause the accumulation of a fair amount of anger. Add to that his numerous and continuing indiscretions, about which she can do nothing whatsoever, and the anger gathers into a powerful rage. Her own ambitions have been attached to his star. Now that she has the chance for independent flight he holds her back once again. He is uncontrollable.
She has paid her dues for many years. The ultimate payoff was to be the Presidency. Now, to be inhibited in her plan by a young upstart and the weight of her past, the rage is incalculable.
Hillary is also a vehicle for the rage of her supporters. She gives voice not only to her own rage, but to the accumulated rage of women of her generation and older, working class whites and those, undereducated, who have been by-passed by the illusive American Dream.
I don't denigrate the rage, only observe it and know that it is real.
I don't think so. I think the desire for power is a manifestation of the primary motivator.
I feel that Hillary's primary motivator is rage.
In my experience, most of human behavior can be ascribed to the baser emotions. Fear is a primary motivator. In Hillary's case, when I watch and listen to her, I hear the underlying rage.
She has spent most of her adult life playing second fiddle to Bill Clinton. That, alone, without his numerous indiscretions, would cause the accumulation of a fair amount of anger. Add to that his numerous and continuing indiscretions, about which she can do nothing whatsoever, and the anger gathers into a powerful rage. Her own ambitions have been attached to his star. Now that she has the chance for independent flight he holds her back once again. He is uncontrollable.
She has paid her dues for many years. The ultimate payoff was to be the Presidency. Now, to be inhibited in her plan by a young upstart and the weight of her past, the rage is incalculable.
Hillary is also a vehicle for the rage of her supporters. She gives voice not only to her own rage, but to the accumulated rage of women of her generation and older, working class whites and those, undereducated, who have been by-passed by the illusive American Dream.
I don't denigrate the rage, only observe it and know that it is real.
The Week That Was
What a week it was. And, what a difference a day makes. Going into last Tuesday's North Carolina and Indiana primaries, there was a plausible claim that the race hung in the balance. The math didn't work for Hillary and the Clintonistas but, there was a plausible claim that if they had a narrow loss in North Carolina and a strong victory in Indiana, they would, on the heels of Pennsylvania, have momentum. They could make a claim to the super delegates that Hillary was the most electable. It was not to be.
It was a great result Tuesday for Obama. It sealed the nomination for him, at least, as everyone has said, "presumptively."
There were several noteworthy events following on after the Tuesday elections. Obama, on the Hill courting super delegates, walked onto the House floor during a vote. He was swarmed by Democrats and Republicans alike. You didn't need a pollster to tell you that he was the winner. He was like a rock star and the adulation was apparent. When I saw that I knew for certain that it was over.
Hillary, though, was not so sure. She continued in her robo-call manner, to careen forward. Her interview with USA Today was the most unbelievable. Okay, Hillary, so you have great strength among the poor white uneducated population many of whom are racist. Wahoo Hillary!!! But, Hillary, where are your manners. You can think that but you can't say it. That is especially the case if you wish to retain for yourself and your hapless ex-President husband, any sense of nobility. Candidly, I think you have both made great strides toward the dustbin of history.
Saturday Night Live put the knife in it when they opened with a great Amy Poehler skit. It was a wonderful put down of Hillary. She has no ethics. SNL made up for their pivotal early support, post writer's strike of Hillary and their parody of the media's fawning over Obama. Kudos to SNL for getting it right last night. Check it out.
It was a great result Tuesday for Obama. It sealed the nomination for him, at least, as everyone has said, "presumptively."
There were several noteworthy events following on after the Tuesday elections. Obama, on the Hill courting super delegates, walked onto the House floor during a vote. He was swarmed by Democrats and Republicans alike. You didn't need a pollster to tell you that he was the winner. He was like a rock star and the adulation was apparent. When I saw that I knew for certain that it was over.
Hillary, though, was not so sure. She continued in her robo-call manner, to careen forward. Her interview with USA Today was the most unbelievable. Okay, Hillary, so you have great strength among the poor white uneducated population many of whom are racist. Wahoo Hillary!!! But, Hillary, where are your manners. You can think that but you can't say it. That is especially the case if you wish to retain for yourself and your hapless ex-President husband, any sense of nobility. Candidly, I think you have both made great strides toward the dustbin of history.
Saturday Night Live put the knife in it when they opened with a great Amy Poehler skit. It was a wonderful put down of Hillary. She has no ethics. SNL made up for their pivotal early support, post writer's strike of Hillary and their parody of the media's fawning over Obama. Kudos to SNL for getting it right last night. Check it out.
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Clinton's End Game
The end game for the Clinton campaign is now becoming clear. Regardless of the protestations of her most aggressive supporters, the Clinton campaign will end in early to mid June.
Between now and then the Clinton campaign will reduce the negative attacks against Obama as a part of their significant reduction in television advertising. Hillary will continue to campaign and will continue to give her standard stump speech and continue to talk about going all the way to November and the White House. She must do that to keep up the illusion that the game is not over.
She will continue to raise money. The money will be used to pay for the campaign essentials. Campaign debt to existing vendors owed millions will not be paid and the Clinton debt will not be repaid, at least not now. Ultimately, of course, the repayment of the Clinton debt and campaign vendor debt is a relatively trivial matter and will be handled in due course, either by or through the efforts the Democratic Party, Obama and others. Money is always easier to raise for a gracious loser than for a failing competitor.
Clinton will play it out through the remaining primaries in part because it would look bad if Obama lost in West Virginia or Kentucky to Clinton who will remain on those ballots even if she withdraws from the race. Hence, she will stay to the end.
The key piece to keep in mind is that she will lower the rhetoric, reduce the attacks and focus her campaign on the issues she wants on the agenda. The next month she will focus on that agenda and, with her fingers crossed behind her back, hope against hope that Obama implodes somehow.
He won't and she will then graciously move aside. So, we should just relax and let it play out.
Between now and then the Clinton campaign will reduce the negative attacks against Obama as a part of their significant reduction in television advertising. Hillary will continue to campaign and will continue to give her standard stump speech and continue to talk about going all the way to November and the White House. She must do that to keep up the illusion that the game is not over.
She will continue to raise money. The money will be used to pay for the campaign essentials. Campaign debt to existing vendors owed millions will not be paid and the Clinton debt will not be repaid, at least not now. Ultimately, of course, the repayment of the Clinton debt and campaign vendor debt is a relatively trivial matter and will be handled in due course, either by or through the efforts the Democratic Party, Obama and others. Money is always easier to raise for a gracious loser than for a failing competitor.
Clinton will play it out through the remaining primaries in part because it would look bad if Obama lost in West Virginia or Kentucky to Clinton who will remain on those ballots even if she withdraws from the race. Hence, she will stay to the end.
The key piece to keep in mind is that she will lower the rhetoric, reduce the attacks and focus her campaign on the issues she wants on the agenda. The next month she will focus on that agenda and, with her fingers crossed behind her back, hope against hope that Obama implodes somehow.
He won't and she will then graciously move aside. So, we should just relax and let it play out.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
"Butt Crack" Strategy
An inside source at the Clinton campaign sent me a copy of a top secret campaign strategy memo which details the plans for winning over the blue collar and no collar voters. Staffers in the campaign call it the "Butt Crack Memo."
The memo came together after the huge success the campaign had sending Bill Clinton into small towns in Pennsylvania. It was drafted after the stunning response he had in Intercourse, PA. Bill claimed to have never been in Intercourse before. On the Intercourse stump he said, "I have never been in Intercourse before. I love Intercourse." The staff strategists put together a plan that would send the former President to as many small backwater towns as possible in every upcoming primary state.
These are towns, all previously served by railroads and now by-passed by both rail and interstate, who last saw a President when Theodore Roosevelt made a whistle stop in 1904. They are thrilled to see a former President, even one who is disgraced, increasingly irrelevant and relegated to eating large portions of fried chicken in bingo halls.
The memo got its name from the first stop on the former President's new schedule, Butt Crack, Indiana. Butt Crack is a wide place in the road just south of French Lick.
The memo came together after the huge success the campaign had sending Bill Clinton into small towns in Pennsylvania. It was drafted after the stunning response he had in Intercourse, PA. Bill claimed to have never been in Intercourse before. On the Intercourse stump he said, "I have never been in Intercourse before. I love Intercourse." The staff strategists put together a plan that would send the former President to as many small backwater towns as possible in every upcoming primary state.
These are towns, all previously served by railroads and now by-passed by both rail and interstate, who last saw a President when Theodore Roosevelt made a whistle stop in 1904. They are thrilled to see a former President, even one who is disgraced, increasingly irrelevant and relegated to eating large portions of fried chicken in bingo halls.
The memo got its name from the first stop on the former President's new schedule, Butt Crack, Indiana. Butt Crack is a wide place in the road just south of French Lick.
Friday, May 2, 2008
Please Save Us From Bill Clinton
Bill Clinton is at large on the campaign trail spouting off once again. If you saw the fabulous Saturday Live skit with the Clinton's recently, it has a hilarious send-up of Bill's love for talking.
He does love to talk to people. He loves to hear himself talk.
Most recently he has been working hard to reinforce Hilary's ersatz working class cred. Part of that effort involves an attack on the alleged elitist views of Obama and his supporters. Bill is quoted as follows:
"The great divide in this country is not by race or even income, it's by those who think they are better than everyone else and think they should play by a different set of rules," he said. "In West Virginia and Arkansas, we know that when we see it."
I am incredulous when I read this quote. If anyone knows about playing by a different set of rules it is Bill Clinton. The record is full of examples of Bill Clinton playing the elitist card and claiming a separate set of rules for himself. Hillary is no different. The latest from Bill reinforces once again why it is imperative that we do everything we can to keep him out of the White House.
I blame him for the war in Iraq and the deaths of the young men and woman being needlessly sacrificed in that apocryphal conflict. His indiscretions and his insistence on having a separate set of rules brought us George W. Bush. Thanks Bill. Now go away and let us rebuild America.
He does love to talk to people. He loves to hear himself talk.
Most recently he has been working hard to reinforce Hilary's ersatz working class cred. Part of that effort involves an attack on the alleged elitist views of Obama and his supporters. Bill is quoted as follows:
"The great divide in this country is not by race or even income, it's by those who think they are better than everyone else and think they should play by a different set of rules," he said. "In West Virginia and Arkansas, we know that when we see it."
I am incredulous when I read this quote. If anyone knows about playing by a different set of rules it is Bill Clinton. The record is full of examples of Bill Clinton playing the elitist card and claiming a separate set of rules for himself. Hillary is no different. The latest from Bill reinforces once again why it is imperative that we do everything we can to keep him out of the White House.
I blame him for the war in Iraq and the deaths of the young men and woman being needlessly sacrificed in that apocryphal conflict. His indiscretions and his insistence on having a separate set of rules brought us George W. Bush. Thanks Bill. Now go away and let us rebuild America.
Monday, April 28, 2008
Jeremiah Wright
This is the story that keeps on ticking. It hasn't helped that Reverend Jeremiah Wright has gone on a media tour these past several days. Wright clearly loves being the center of attention. I also think it is very clear that he is irritated with Barack Obama. He is irritated and he is jealous.
It is actually funny and pathetic. And it detracts from the righteous core message that Wright has historically conveyed from his pulpit. I happen to believe that Wright overwhelming speaks the truth from his pulpit. He gives voice to a perception that is held by many. It needs to be listened to. Obama said as much in his Constitution Hall speech on race.
It appears clear to me, however, that Wright is jealous that the young Barack Obama, whom he guided and counseled when he was a young man, has now eclipsed his elder, former spiritual mentor. This is a classic phenomenon. The young protege who learns the ropes from the older mentor, must as he matures, find his own way in the world and break from his mentor. That transition is a difficult and troublesome one. It is a time when jealousy and irritation over the protege's success can cause the mentor to be hurtful. The mentor always sees greatness in the protege, which is one reason the relationship begins in the first instance. The mentor knows that the protege will soar. But, is only human to see base emotions surface when the protege soars beyond the mentor's reach.
How Obama deals with this latest Wright flare up will say much about the man. I have a notion about how it should be handled, but I will hold back on that until we see the response of the man I believe should be our next President.
It is actually funny and pathetic. And it detracts from the righteous core message that Wright has historically conveyed from his pulpit. I happen to believe that Wright overwhelming speaks the truth from his pulpit. He gives voice to a perception that is held by many. It needs to be listened to. Obama said as much in his Constitution Hall speech on race.
It appears clear to me, however, that Wright is jealous that the young Barack Obama, whom he guided and counseled when he was a young man, has now eclipsed his elder, former spiritual mentor. This is a classic phenomenon. The young protege who learns the ropes from the older mentor, must as he matures, find his own way in the world and break from his mentor. That transition is a difficult and troublesome one. It is a time when jealousy and irritation over the protege's success can cause the mentor to be hurtful. The mentor always sees greatness in the protege, which is one reason the relationship begins in the first instance. The mentor knows that the protege will soar. But, is only human to see base emotions surface when the protege soars beyond the mentor's reach.
How Obama deals with this latest Wright flare up will say much about the man. I have a notion about how it should be handled, but I will hold back on that until we see the response of the man I believe should be our next President.
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